Somewhere out in the future is the next generation of technologies that will wean the world off fossil fuels and provide it with renewable power. But we cannot see those clearly so meanwhile we have to be careful with what we have got.If Kyoto encourages the hunt for the new technologies - as it has - that is worth something. If it makes us think a little more about our own use of energy that is worth something too. The costs of global climate change are very long term and most uncertian. The markets can match supply and demand today but their focus is inevitably short-term They find it hard to look 30 years out. The Danish statistician Bj?Lomborg has controversially argued that Kyoto slows the growth of emissions by an insignificant amount at a very high cost.
While it is certainly desirable to do so, it would better to put resources into the development of alternative energy and tackling the effects of global warming.These objections need to be taken seriously. But the best response to this, surely, is to see Kyoto as an early and imperfect step along a long and difficult road.Its huge benefit is to focus attention on a global problem - and a global problem that the market cannot fix. Money spent on wind farms is money not available for drugs in Africa. Economic resources - just like fossil fuels - are finite and they need to be directed where they will be most effective. Other aims, such as the elimination of malaria or combating Aids in Africa, have greater claims on scarce resources. So politics can lead as well as follow and environmentalism feels modern in a way that profligate energy use does not.There is one final line of criticism of Kyoto that needs to be acknowledged: that it is not the highest priority. America can look to places such as Copenhagen, which has over 20 years sought to get people out of cars and on to bikes and public transport - and has created a much more livable city than similar US cities.
The fashionable car for Hollywood stars is the hybrid Toyota Prius, which does more than 50mpg. There is a significant minority within the US that seeks to reduce environmental damage caused by high energy use. Criticism of the US has to be tempered with an acknowledgment of the will of its people. Arguably by immediately acknowledging that Kyoto would never be passed by Congress, the present President was at least being more honest than his predecessor, who sidelined political debate on the matter until he was out of office.Yet here again, while acknowledging the separation of powers in the US, it is surely possible also to acknowledge the power of persuasion. A Russian president can force through legislation in the way a US one cannot.
